It’s a time when you’ll see a lot of stern-looking people (men usually) sitting behind desks and talking – and here’s another one, but no national flag draped in the background this time, no line to spin, no threats, just an attempt to talk honestly and openly about what has been going on in the Eastern part of our continent. I run a very significant risk of being obsolete here, and I am not referring to the rather unexpected birthday celebrations which took place before the half term break! Ukraine has become a swirling, unpredictable and accelerating crisis where no-one can predict what comes next. I write this on the morning of Monday 28 February, on a morning where unprecedented sanctions have been launched against Russia by an economic coalition of democracies and a capital city of 4 million people is under shell and missile fire. Who knows what this week will bring? What I do have now is empathy with the uncertainty and feeling of threat that has been felt by Europeans during the last century, and a better understanding of the unfolding of history as a lived experience. I didn’t have that a month ago.
I thought that I’d explore three things that have been brought into sharper focus for me over the past few days as I have trawled through websites and social media, trying to get my head around what is happening. A little history. Some economics. And the importance of the fourth (and fifth?) estates. Bear with me…
Some history first, with my apologies to Ms Brennan and her colleagues for any factual slips. One of the origins of the current crisis in Ukraine (and Georgia for that matter) is a policy of forced resettlement by Stalin towards the end of WW2. This resulted in the uprooting of indigenous populations from areas peripheral to Russia, with ethnic Russian settlers taking their place. A good example is in the Crimea, which of course was invaded and annexed by Russia in the last war against Ukraine in 2014, and I have just posted a relevant paper from Cambridge University researchers on the Sixth Form Enrichment Channel on Teams. Thousands of Crimean Tartars were exiled to central Russia, with no return allowed until the collapse of the former Soviet Union in 1989, and since then attitudes have hardened once more. Russia is defined by a long and complex history, and ways of thinking about that history are generational. In a visit to Moscow and St Petersberg in 2016 I was struck by the difference between my two guides; the older man, in his 60’s, felt that the West was a threat and wanted Russia to be strong whatever the cost. The younger, a female student in her 20’s felt that the future lay in understanding and working with western countries. She had spent some time living in France. He, a proud Muscovite, though well-travelled in many ways had never mentally left the country of his youth.
Much is being made of the importance of economic sanctions in deterring further aggressive action by Russia – and it’s not surprising in many ways. Firstly, relatively speaking Russia is anything but a super power in terms of wealth. Gross Domestic Product is not the only way of measuring economic weight, but GDP is probably the best way that we have of comparing world economies on a more-or-less even playing field. On that playing field Russia is not even in the top 10 economies in terms of size (the UK is at 6), and it is declining rather than growing. Dividing up wealth per head of population makes the comparison starker still; the UK has half the population of Russia but the UK economy is nearly double the size. Because of the digital interconnectedness of the global economy it is perfectly possible for other countries to take action to stop Russia from trading globally and freeze assets for both individuals and banks. As a result the value of the Russian Rouble has declined by 30% over one weekend, and this morning the Central Bank in Moscow has doubled interest rates. But of course this has an impact here too as the price of oil and gas rises and companies lose money and markets; we will all feel the impact of that. There is, quite literally, no ‘silver bullet’.
Lastly, the fourth estate is a label that is often applied to the media in the UK and beyond, and if there is one thing that is tipping out of this crisis it is the absolutely critical importance of having journalists who are free from fear or political arm twisting. The accounts from Ukraine by journalists from across the free world give a broad view across the country and, though the reports can never give a complete picture they do portray the crisis in all its grisly detail. The presence of international news media also gives a voice to those who are caught up in the war, the refugees, the volunteers and those cowering in shelters as well as armed forces and militia members. There is a dramatic contrast with the coverage within Russia, with media strictly controlled by the state ‘regulator’ that prescribes a cooking recipe of what to cover and how. Orwell’s Ministry of Truth feels uncomfortably close as a parallel, and this is reinforced by the reported attempts by the Russian authorities to limit access to social media and prevent fact checking. My fifth estate is the huge numbers of citizen journalists posting content online. Though obviously they are often difficult to verify, the posts give a compelling and vivid depiction of life on the front line, or at least far closer than professional journalists usually get.
The crisis in Ukraine will affect us all, either directly or indirectly. The countries of the free world appear to have put aside squabbling and trade disputes and have united in a way that I cannot remember in my life time. That is what is needed right now, and my hope is that unity may make the man in the Kremlin reflect on what his best course of action might be rather than cause yet more misery, pain and anguish for Ukraine.
SDS
